Cycle forecast: Based on historical cycle growth rates and the trend of smaller, less extreme price swings as Bitcoin’s market matures and grows.
BTC PRICE CHANGE YTD: $56,058 → $114,138 (+103.61%)
Personal Note & Risks:

Despite the mathematical scarcity and utility of the Bitcoin network, I remain highly sceptical of its long-term prospects. Serious risks include:

  • Quantum computing threats that could break current cryptography, with no guarantee of global consensus for an upgrade.
  • Lack of intrinsic value: Unlike assets tied to cashflow or industrial use, Bitcoin’s value is ultimately based on collective belief.
  • Proof-of-work and network fees: The original design, while ingenious, may be inefficient and outdated compared to modern alternatives.

On the positive side, Bitcoin’s exact digital scarcity (unlike gold, which could be mined from space), its libertarian whitepaper origins, and the ongoing push for mass adoption—especially by institutions—show genuine innovation. Yet, like many transformative technologies, Bitcoin could still prove to be a speculative bubble, much like the tulip mania or dot-com boom.

This analysis is not investment advice. As always, do your own research and consider both the risks and the potential of any asset.

About this chart

I’ve recently compiled and analysed hundreds of technical and macroeconomic indicators from highly regarded sources like the Federal Reserve (FRED) and the blockchain itself. After extensive backtesting, I distilled this data into a focused set of signals that reliably highlight the best long-term cyclical buying and selling windows for Bitcoin—shown by the coloured bands.

Feel free to message me and I will add you to the email list for updates.

Important: In most cases, simply buying and holding an asset you believe in (like BTC or a fund) has outperformed the majority of short-term trading strategies. This chart is best used for education, context, and timing major cycles—not for trading. It is my first large coding project.

All data and signals are automatically refreshed through API calls from my live trading system.